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points. these are not implausible assumptions. mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points. could have to up to 36 points. that is if it does not change. d, ands does get realize if the white college graduates face about the same, it means that met romney would have to get north of 40 point margin of the white voter. let's take a look of where we are now. this is the gold standard. breaks. this shows that obama is leading by 8 points. if you look at the averages, it is a bit high. the averages are running about four points. you are probably up by five points. this is within the averages. it is similar to the pole from the heartland monitor which will talk about later. overall top line, a look at the margin, 91 points. that is basically identical. 7222 among 852 margin. most have been showing this. what this means is that the idea that obama could get 80% of the minority vote is quite logical based on these and other data that looks like what he will get. this shows you the break out for college graduates. , obama is doing a little bit better among white graduat
of the candidates have experienced. president obama's last debate was against senator john mccain in the fall of 2008. while governor romney has had nearly two dozen debates during that gop primary. the obama campaign says the president's strategy is focused on shorter, crisper answers. the romney strategy, as reported in "the new york times" has the governor memorizing a series of zingers to try to hit the president with. let's bring in our "news nation" political panel for this monday. democratic strategist chris, national radio host michael, and also an msnbc contributor, and villa skype as you can tell from our shot there, steve, conservative radio show host. you have the visual disadvantage because you're skype. i'll let you start off first here. let me play what paul ryan, completely opposite of what chris christie said this sunday. his assessment of the debates. let's play ryan, please. >> i don't think one event is going to make or break this campaign. look, president obama's a very -- he's a very gifted speaker. this is mitt's first time on this kind of a stage. >> it's no secret, st
, which was this date four years ago, the focus was the war. in fact, both wars. >> do you, senator mccain, much has been said about the lessons of vietnam. what do you see as the lessons of iraq? >> i think the lessons of iraq are very clear that you cannot have a failed strategy. thanks to this great general david pa tray yous, they are succeeding and winning in iraq. >>the lde into the war in the first place. six years ago i stood up and opposed this war. we hadn't finished the job in afghanistan. we hadn't caught bin laden. we hadn't put al qaeda to rest. an asecetht that it was going to be a distraction. now, senator mccain and president bush had a very different judgment. >> so that was this date, 40 days out from the election in '08 and 40 days out from the election in '04. in '04 the campaign was consumed with the debate overt ast one of our wars. 40 days out from the election in '08, in the midst of the financial meltdown the campaign was consumed with both of the wars. now it's 2012 and we're 40 days out from the election this year and we are not quite as consumed with that issue
that are saying farewell. see what he says about george w. bush and john mccain. this is "the daily rundown." i am chuck todd. let's get to the first reads of the morning. in the last two weeks, we polled in nine battleground states deciding the election. ohio, florida, virginia, colorado, iowa, wisconsin, north carolina, nevada, new hampshire. bad news for mitt romney, he doesn't lead in a single one. at best within the poll's margin of error. at worst, trails by eight points. this morning, how the nine states stack up. we said it again and again. the president's job approval rating may be the best indicator of where the bout may be. where it is more than 50, the president favored to win. iowa, florida, new hampshire, ohio, virginia, his approval rating below that, 47 or 48 in four. colorado, nevada, north carolina, wisconsin. here is a second way to breakdown the numbers. romney struggled with favorability number all year. that number underwater, more voters have unfavorable than favorable view in six states. romney is in positive territory in just three. florida, north carolina, virginia. final
in this race, mitt romney would have to get double john mccain's margin of 18 points among the white working class in this election. that's youth turnout doesn't change among minority's despite the shifts in eligible voters. if this does get realize, let's say minority vote share goes up by couple of points, 26% as was in 2008 to 28% in 2012, and again if the white college graduate and minority support stays about the same, it means mitt romney would have to get north of 40-point margin among white working-class voters to actually win the election, to win the popular vote. so let's take look at where we are now based on a reasonable came out. it's the gold standard for polls. a pew research center. no one else -- no offense to anyone else in the room who has april. they really do it right. it's pretty reliable stuff. they give you a lot of interesting demographic breaks tradition as among likely voters that obama is leading now by eight points. if you look at the average of the national polls as a bit high relative to the average. the average has been running about four-point. if you look at
, in fact, at best a few points better than wind mccain ran in 2008 and he is doing no better at all among white college graduates. that is one reason why the state is at this point looking pretty favorable toward barack obama. he could carry it by as much as he did in 2008. and also, if you look at it geographically obama is doing very well in the columbus area, which is kind of the slim support where it counts. o.c. investors and a lot of other states. the grace to the pennsylvania which, again, if their romney team could have put pennsylvania in place it would have been the key to a lot of other things. but the problem for them now is that pennsylvania is looking very difficult for them. obama is barely running in eight or nine or ten. average margin. it's just not happening. again, it comes back to what appeared to be the big coke, that they could drive up the white working-class margins in that state. 2008, a 15-point of vantage for john mccain, but the polls coming out of pennsylvania again and again show is not doing any better than-15. so basically the state is looking very similar
and turn the majpage. congressman paul ryan and paul mccain. take a look at this approach. >> the response was slow. it was confused. it was inconsistent. they first said that it was a youtube video and a spontaneous mob. we now know that it was a planned terrorist attack. if this was one tragic incident, that would be a tragedy in and of itself. the problem is it's part of a bigger picture of the fact that the obama foreign policy is unraveling literally before our eyes on our tv screens. >> i think it interferes with the depiction that the administration is trying to convey, that al qaeda is on the wane, that everything's fine in the middle east. >> you think it's political? >> i think there are certain political overtones. how else could you trot out our u.n. ambassador to say it was spontaneous? >> maybe it was. >> five days later? that doesn't pass the smell test. it was ever ignorance or willful intelligence. >> whether you agree with him or not, senator mccain has the credibility, a war hero, with great experience in washington dealing with foreign policy, how do you think, though,
the economy imploded, john mccain's advisers say his campaign collapsed along with it and never recovered. historians say in order for an october surprise to have a real 11th hour impact it has to feed into a narrative that already exist, whether it's carter's ineffectiveness or questions about mccain's credentials on the economy. >> it's not so much that suddenly eureka this is so surprising, so amazing, but rather people nod yes, this is where we thought things were going. >> dana bash joins us live from washington. first of all, i guess people will take a look at friday's numbers, the jobs numbers and do we think that could be a, the october surprise that people are waiting for, the unemployment? >> reporter: you know, it could be if it's anything like the unemployment reports that we've seen important the past several months it's going to be pretty static and that would not be a surprise. but, you know, what was interesting about what the presidential historian said that we talked to said it's true about these october surprises. they only have an impact if, because it's so late in the
during mccain one on ones. while romney did well in this season's gop debates, had rough performances, bet you $10,000 he did. romney performances, the unspoken body language that the camera captured, they were brutal against ted kennedy. ivy league will enjoy biden versus ryan more. trust me. >>> turning back to the brand new battleground polls. there's a different pattern emerging, president obama is ahead in new hampshire, tighter in nevada and north carolina. joining me, director of the marist poll. good to see you in person. >> welcome to the home of the new york yankees. >> you're going to blow the playoff run. >> i am worried. >> we want the beltway series in washington. we have been looking at this as sort of the generic, the general all nine states. what is your take away? >> i think what you're seeing is a very big difference when obama is 45, 46 as months ago when everything was 44, now he gets to 48, 49, 50, you can say it makes a difference -- >> it does feel like 48 is a big difference -- >> seeing a change in the right direction in the approval rating. >> massive gender
be off. i was on the mccain campaign so i've seen him in primary debates with mccain, in primary debates in 2008 and now in 2012. ki tell you, there's times he's on, like when he was in florida in the last two primary debates. there's times he's been totally off, like the last two debates in south carolina where newt gingrich had him on the ropes. >> but he has to do something to turn around the dime nick this race. >> what's interesting is, yes, you have sort of the official romney/ryan line that mitt romney can't form a complete sentence and bark obama is cicero and it's going to be very hard. but what christie said is what you're hearing from people behind the scenes. there was a piece with a lot of anonymous quotes from romney aides saying, we need a game changer. i think the good news for romney is if you look back to those primary debates that you were talking about, he did the best in the debates where it seemed like he absolutely had to win. so the south carolina debate, seemed like he was on cruise control, sort of playing a prevent defense against newt gingrich. but then once g
mccain four years ago? >> it sounds like a huge, huge mistake on his part. the only poll that matters, of course, is on election day and i worked on campaigns before. you can't not look at polls. gretchen, for mitt romney to say that he's not going to directly go after the president when we see his record so dower and pathetic and knowing the media isn't covering any of this. his huge gaffe was not admitting we were attacked by al-qaeda and where was the media on this? the ohm person that can take the president to task is mitt romney. the pressure it on for denver. i'll be there for "the five," but he really has to bring it because the media won't do that. >> gretchen: ten seconds. >> i think the big x factor is extremely passionate voters on the republican side. i think romney has a slight edge there and a little bit on the foreign affairs side that andrea is talking about. if you look among senior, look on the economy, all those key issues right now are trending towards president obama in the voters' minds and people getting comfortable with the idea of a second term. >> gretchen: 4
, staffer starting to give premore tems to the press, spin how it's not their fault. toward the enof the mccain campaign they were preparing internal memos of how to exonerate themselves of blame. you'll start to see that coming. when that kind of thing comes, republican money people start to smell it and look for other places to put their resources. >> melissa, is there extra credit for losing creatively? you're a teacher and educator. >> i mean there actually is extra credit for losing creatively if you are a current office holder. if you are a senator or governor and going to go back to that job then, in fact, there are ways if you lose you can lose and still retain your position, for example, as mccain does as a particular kind of voice within the context of the senate. but when you are as romney said many, many times in the primary, an unemployed guy, then what happens is you simply become sort of a speed bump in history. >> now, jeff, you followed a lot of campaigns. i'm sure you remember when people thought senator obama was losing. are people counting romney out too early and does that
why john mccain and sarah palin underperformed in a lot of those places. and also, a lot of folks out there, a lot of folks in my family included, said, you know what, with i like john mccain, but i'm just not sure about sarah palin. i just don't believe that she's qualified to be president. obviously, governor romney does not that have scenario these days, but he has to overperform in areas that mccain underperformed in. >> we love to point the finger and blame when political races are lost. if governor romney loses this thing, come wednesday morning, who do they blame? >> well, i've got to look in the mirror and blame themselves. one, the campaign was ill prepared from the beginning. believe it or not, they didn't have an answer to the tax question. they didn't have a good answer to the bain capital question. and governor romney made stumble after stumble and it pains me to say that, because when we were governors together, i liked him and he helped me form late pennsylvania's health care plan, but he's just -- his performance has been almost shock during this campaign. >> almost sh
morning, everyone. we get an interesting perspective on this from john mccain. he's debated both the president and mitt romney, and he says we will see two very strong well-prepared candidates and in his prediction, few surprises. the president's behind closed doors in nevada for the next two days preparing to face mitt romney in denver wednesday. >> he's a good debater. i'm just okay. but what i'm most concerned about is having a serious discussion about what we need to do to keep the country growing. >> reporter: both sides are downplaying expectations. a senior aide to the president says romney will be prepared, disciplined and aggressive. romney's debate partner calls the president a tough debater. >> barack obama is going to be formidable and i think it will be a good debate, but i certainly would not underestimate what barack obama brings to it. >> reporter: john kerry's playing romney with the president. in a weekend memory, republicans urged kerry to press the president on libya and syria. in today's "wall street journal" romney calls president obama's foreign policy dang
mccain and one poll said john mccain lost by 33 points in that particular debate. both sides are saying opposition is superior. romney understands this is a big deal. the entire month of october will be dedicated to debates. it could be the most important time of the whole campaign and imaren't voters with what could be the biggest area of information. >>shepard: we will look at the latest polls. this are a lot of them out now. more on how the campaigns are trying to tone down expectations for the presidential debate. if you are a candidate you want expectations as low as possible so when you get up there you look better than you were expected to look, right? [ male announcer ] introducing a reason to look twice. the entirely new lexus es and the first-ever es hybrid. this is the pursuit of perfection. made gluten-free cereals in a bunch of yummy flavors. like cinnamon chex, honey nut chex, and chocolate chex... we're inereal heaven. so thanks. from the mcgregors, 'cause we love chex. stay top of mind with customers? from deals that bring them in with an offer... to social media promoti
florida, the majority of seniors voted for john mccain because they were hesitant how the health care reform would take place. talking about ryan and medicare and seniors, it comes down to florida. >> florida, florida, florida, david. she is right about one thing. if you look at the poll, the one area where you see consistent movement poll after poll after poll toward barack obama has been with senior citizens. you know as well as i do, they are a consistent voting block. they go to the polls in larger percentages. has the obama administration been successful at branding the medicare plan of the republicans as voucher care and are senior citizens moving away because they're afraid of the medicare changes? >> the ryan budget plan existed in terms of the 2010 election when republicans won 65 plus seniors by 21 points. part of the dynamic that exists here is, in fact, seniors are really unhappy with president obama's health care plan. what you see is this significant concern handling medicare, four years ago republicans would lose that by 25 points. now it's down in low single digits whe
he's not such a great debater, he hasn't done this in four years since debating john mccain where as mitt romney had all this practice. even last night the president was trying to downplay his expectations. >> who is going to put the most points on the board? [you are ] >> no, no, governor romney, he's a good debater. i'm just okay. but what i'm most concerned about is having a serious discussion about what we need to do to keep the country growing and restore security for hard-working americans. >> i'm just okay the president says in terms of debating, although i remember back in tpwaeut 2008 he did a pretty good job against hillary clinton. a pretty good job with john mccain. by the way, no sign of lindsay lohan here yet. jenna: where are the celebrities going to come in next. ed you're better than okay. back toed as news warrants in las vegas. i gregg: if she was there you would know it. jenna:ed would be all over that. gregg: the man who wants president obama's job also getting ready for the first debate. governor mitt romney will be heading to denver a bit later today ahead o
? gosh, i remember when obama was running against mccain, and it seemed like every day i heard about the muslim and the birth thing, it was terrible. they didn't think that that was biased. it was the story of the day. host: beverly, you're in missouri. are you seeing a lot of campaign commercials on the air? caller: well, in mccassill and aiken. host: but not on the presidential level? caller: no, very few. i think obama has written off missouri, because even though these women here and two men, they are all -- i haven't found one democrat. host: beside yourself, huh? caller: that sort of tells me how their mind is. they're not going vote for obama, but they're not going to vote for romney. i asked, this one lady i ride with, she said she's not going to vote for the president this time. i didn't ask her why, because i want to remain friends, but she definitely wanted to vote republican, but she just can't bring herself to vote for romney because of what they'll do to social security, and she said mine's safe, but i have children and grandchildren. that's the way they're thinking. ho
that john mccain could not win the presidency. a great american but allows a republican and a terrible senator. and i was sadly correct. not only was he a terrible candid in the middle of the crisis, probably even the best gadgets could not have survived. a financial crisis with an incumbent president that was been wrongly at the seat of george bush in the republican party when it goes back to democratic house important -- but nevertheless i wrote in that book that romney would make a great presidential nominee. i didn't know who the nominee would be. it's not a book about romney. i was proven remarkably impressionable by the 2007 book. the dean of the columbia school of journalism. the new yorkers national political reporter and always the go to guy for national political stories. the profile the in 2005 for the new yorker. it was a very nice piece. he told his liberal democratic leaders, the most influential conservative you ever heard of. okay. [laughter] that's okay, i guess. i don't really speak to the manhattan crowd, the your crowd. how many of you describe to the new yorker? i
of media speak strategies and former senior advisor spokesperson to john mccain. thank you for joug us. nancy i want to begin with you. for six months they said this campaign is a referendum on president obama's record. now you heard paul ryan saying in his interview with chris that it's about choice. do you see this as a shift in strategy for the romney campaign and if so, is that why? >> i think it's right and proper for both candidates to offer americans a clear vision of their path for the country. i think it's a natural evidence luilgs. any time an incumbent president running against a challenger there is component of that that is referendum, but now is the time where we've got a matter of weeks when people have to cast their votes. now is the time for each candidate to be crystal clear about the direction they would take our country. >> heather: alex us what do you think? >> i think they were energized by the romney-ryan team gets this. when you look at the choice that americans have, it's like mitt romney came straight out of central casting. he has a guy and talking about who i
against john mccain and some others, and doing his level best to get under romney's skin and romney's just about what a tough debater portman is, on a number of cases, it's been portman's responsibility to try to irritate mitt romney or trip him up on the issues and he's played an important role on this and this debate is six segments, 15 minutes long east and the first three are about the economy and the fourth is obama care and health care reform. the fourth is on governoring and the 5th is role of government. all of these things will dominate the discussion, but romney is planning after this coming debate on wednesday, before the policy speech on the week before the vice-president debates, the attempts by the romney ryan campaign, to go beyond the economy and try to do the whole campaign contrast in the last four years. >> an exciting time for all the americans who said now, carl, they'll tune in more, leading up to the debate. thank you, campaign carl, good to see you. moving on now to president obama and his visit in the swing state of nevada tonight. the president arrives in las vega
senator rob portman will star as president obama. he also did it in john mccain's 2008 campaign. ahead of next week's debates, both sides have been lowering expectations. >> the president is, obviously, a very eloquent, gifted speaker. he'll do just fine. >> mitt romney has an advantage because he's been through 20 debates in the primaries oefrt the last year. >> barack obama is a very effective debater. >> we know governor romney is practicing for months. i think the invasion of normandy took less preparation than he's putting into the debates. >> i'm joined by the president of progress and former obama white house adviser and also with us is robert trainum. nera, you helped with hillary clinton's debate preps and you worked robert with with rick santorum and president bush. let's get to the heart of it, robert. both sides lowering expectations, but realistically how important is this debate for romney "nightly newmitt romney? >> it's very important. this is his second time to make an impression. the first time was during the republican convention. the second time is in a situation wh
. the key state of virginia, among white working-class voters -- mccain carried this one in 2008. thirty-one or 32 points as they came back in 2008. to add to that, college graduate groups, obama lost by about 11 points in 2008 and he is basically about even among white college graduate voters in general. that makes it very difficult for romney to put together a coalition that can take this state. colorado has been a state that has been very close. obama has a three or four-point lead. quite a bit of demographic change. minority eligible voters down by three percentage points. the white working-class voters. they have gone down by three percentage points. again, it doesn't appear that romney 2008 among white college graduates, he is not making nearly enough progress. if you break it down geographically, it looks very similar to the data in 2008. finally, the poster child -- obama is running ahead, not merely as far as he did in 2,082,008. that is a very quick maybe it is time for me to step back and catch my breath and say why is this? what is going on? so the health care reform act and
of the white working-class would be the best group for ronny to make progress and mccain carried by 17 points in 2008. look at a breakout from the poles provided and we are not seeing any progress among these voters. we are not seeing a noticeably bigger margin among white working-class voters for the gop candidate. is not happening and that is being translated as a similar margin placed like the i 4 corridor in the center of the state where tampa and orlando are and the miami metro area. .. we see college graduate group that obama lost by about 11 points in 2008. facing the most polls he's physically about even. i think that makes it very difficult for romney to put together a coalition that can take the state. colorado has been fairly close so again obama mabey looks like a fairy or four-point lead on average read a lot of demographic change. you can see the minority eligible voters have gone up by three percentage points and working-class voters in 2008 have gone down by three percentage points. again it doesn't appear that romney is able to turn the demographics tie in his favor. he's not
perspective on this from john mccain, he's debated both the president and mitt romney. he says we will see two very strong well-prepared debaters and he predicts few surprises. the president's behind closed doors in nevada for the next two days preparing to face mitt romney in denver wednesday. >> he's a good debater. i'm just okay. but what i'm most concerned about is having a serious discussion about what we need to do to keep the country growing. >> reporter: both sides are downplaying expectations. a senior aide to the president says romney will be prepared, disciplined and aggressive. romney's debate partner calls the president a tough debater. >> barack obama is going to be formidable, and i think it will be a good debate, but i certainly would not underestimate what barack obama brings to it. >> reporter: john kerry's playing romney with the president. in a weekend memo, republicans urged kerry to press the president on libya and syria. romney calls obama's foreign policy dangerous. romney's debate plan, clearly and concisely explain how he can fix the economy. >> i expect to be able to
they would respect him. it is mike mccain in between -- it is like mccain in 2010. >> caller: i think his mom is rolling in her grave as well as his dad. >> john: i think that's very possible. i don't want to talk about his parents in that way too much but his mother was someone who was passionately in favor of a woman's right to choose. there used to be republicans who believed that. i think there's a lot of conservatives certainly in the financial sector who support abortion rights for that reason. his dad released plenty of tax returns. mitt hasn't. the contrasts are kind of sad. let's go to john in -- are we out of time? we're out of time already. we'll go to a break. john in kansas city hang on the phone. i'll get to you as soon as we come back. we're taking your calls at 1-866-55-press on the "bill press show." (vo) what is said here could decide the election. current tv presents coverage of the presidential debate. with unrivaled analysis and commentary. >> you're going to hear that used as a major talking point.
foreign policy, others have been about the economy, like in 2008. when the economy imploded, john mccain's advisers say his campaign collapsed along with it and never recovered. historians say in order for an october surprise to have a real 11th hour impact it has to feed into a narrative that already exists, whether it's carter's ineffectiveness or questions about mccain's credentials on the economy. >> it's not so much that suddenly, eureeka, this is so surprising, so amazing but rather people nod, yes, this is where we thought things were going. >> that is so fascinating. dana bash is live from our washington bureau. so, question, do some think friday's jobs report from the labor department, could that be an october surprise? >> sure. why not, carol? at this point, anything could be an october surprise. the fact is that maybe we've already seen it. maybe it was the tragedy in libya, the unrest in the middle east and how the candidates responded. maybe it was that infamous 47% remark that mitt romney had. maybe one or both of the campaigns has some dirty trick in their pocket that they
and they showed at that time in the race against john mccain then senator now president obama he got 68% or so of latino voters. he seems to be doing even better right now among latino voters. here's the question, john, for you. are these guaranteed votes that the president can put in the bank right now five weeks to the day before the election? >> reporter: again, in a word, the answer is no, or not quite. because this is such an important constituency, part of our reporting in colorado, wolf, we went to an obama campaign local headquarters last night in the beginning of the suburban stretch and they were making phone calls to latino voters because they know this in the obama campaign, it's not just the percentage, it's how many turnout. and there is deep concern while we were there at the phone bank we spoke to several people in the room that say when they call the latino voters, they are hearing more and more unlike four years ago people saying he's been president four years and where are the jobs? or he's just another politician. or this is the choice of the lesser of two evils, romney and
will do with mitt romney what, in fact, he did with john mccain which is that as the two of them stand on stage together, the president figures that he's going to look cool, calm and collected and that he can rattle or fluster mitt romney. megyn: well, we saw some moments with mitt romney during the republican primary, and i'm going to jump a little out of order for the control room, but there was one, this one debate in which he actually laid hands on rick perry, and they went back and forth. here's a small clip. >> i don't think i've ever hired an illegal in my life. i'm looking forward to finding your facts on that -- >> i'll tell you what the facts were -- >> rick, i'm speaking. i'm speaking. i'm speaking. >> it's time for you -- >> you get 30 seconds. >> the way the rules work here is i get 60 seconds -- >> the american people want the truth. megyn: and moments after that he talked about how he denied intentionally hiring illegal immigrants to work on his property saying at the time he told the contractor i'm running for office, for pete's sake, and a lot of the republicans said t
Search Results 0 to 49 of about 91 (some duplicates have been removed)